Just a year ago, bitcoin soared to the record high of nearly $20,000. Experts have indicated that $6,000 is the cost of mining bitcoin and presumably the natural bottom price of bitcoin. The Bitcoin has countinued to fall since November 14, compared to the price of November 14 it already fell almost 40%, the collapse proved that markets are unpredictable. There have been many speculations toward to the bitcoin collapse. From the view of time node, these surely had negative impact on the market, but these are not the root cause for the bitcoin collapse. In essence, bitcoin's collapse is a crisis of consensus and the shake-up of faith, which are caused by a lot of “aircoins”, those are created by speculators as a means of making money, undermined the intrinsic value of bitcoin.
The Chief Editor of FTChinese Jin Xu pointed out in an article on November 30, “the monetary road of bitcoin and gold have the similarity in the beginning and the road diverged. The difference is, what sustains the belief in gold currency is the collective consciousness of all mankind, but bitcoin is maintained by small groups. Although the small group is crazy but the amount is too small and closed, it is basically a male-dominated, relatively marginal group, more important is this group for the enthusiasm of making money more than the enthusiasm of bitcoin.” The bottom of all trades depends on consensus. Bitcoin similar to stocks and gold, for example, price is recognized as bottoms only when most investors believe that a stock with a PE ratio of 10-20 is a value depression. The same as the price of bitcoin, where a cyclical bottom is formed only if most holders believe the limit is at a certain price.
From the technical perspective, the long and short position had fierce competition near the 10-day line, the price of $4000 was repeatedly tested, long counterattack appears to be weak. Looking at the performance of the entire market, most mainstream currencies took a dive, indicating that the bear market sentiment has not yet turned. Jeffrey Wernick just shared in Mars Session that the bottom of Bitcoin is zero. Jeffrey said: “ I only suggest buying bitcoin if you take a 5 year horzion, ignoring daily or weekly price movements. And that if bitcoin is alive in 5 years, its price is likely to be much higher than today, or maybe it will be 0. If people cannot accept that risk, they should not buy.” In additional to the negative news, the consensus on the value of bitcoin has not been reached, and the price may be adjusted recently.