Nov. 30 Mars Market Recap: BTC Short-term Indicators Show Downside Risks; the Downside Trend is Strengthened after BTC’s Price Breaching $4180, a Rebound may Emerge at $4085

Nov. 30 Mars Market Recap: BTC Short-term Indicators Show Downside Risks; the Downside Trend is Strengthened after BTC’s Price Breaching $4180, a Rebound may Emerge at $4085

Nov 30th 2018| Investment By:Mars Finance
The amplitude of BTC decreased, showing a downward trend. 4-hour MACD indicator continues to decline and is likely to continue the downward adjustment in the short term.

Topic in Discussion

After a strong rebound on the 28th, the BTC was finally blocked at $4,400, but there was no significant reduction, but the scheduled sideways adjustment. And in today's horizontal market, short term competition over $4,200 is still fierce, the strength of the bears gets weaker, and the situation that the bulls are gradually stabilizing emerges, but this does not mean that the BTC will start the way of rising rapidly from now on. The intensive MA pressure line of current 4-hour level trend is at $4,300, even if BTC stands at $4,300 and rises under the efforts of bulls, there is a great possibility that it will be blocked at the strong pressure level of $4,500 and enter the range volatility. 

Today, the amplitude of BTC decreases and shows a downward trend. The 4-hour MACD indicator continues to decline and is likely to continue downward adjustment in the short term. There is a strong support at $4,180. A break below that level would result in a bigger drop, or as low as around $4,000, but a big break below $4,000 is less likely.

Combined with the changes in long-short forces and short-term trends, we can see the decline above $4000 as a short covering opportunity, but do not rule out the BTC bears to go sideways and take advantage of the corrective repair to pose substantial pressure.

Market Overview

As of 5pm on November 30, according to CoinMarketCap, the total market value of digital currency market is $135.83 billion, $5.36 billion less than the total market value of yesterday, 3.80% less than the previous month. Total market turnover was $19.99 billion, up $2.06 billion from yesterday and up 11.51% month-on-month. 

Today, the major stablecoin changes as follows, USDT current price of $0.993646, down 0.36%; TUSD, USDC, PAX and GUSD all declined slightly, with the four stable coins currently trading at $1.01. TUSD, USDC, GUSD and PAX all increased the cash flow.

Mars Finance (WeChat: hxcj24h) monitors 14 of the top 100 digital currencies by market value, with 61 of them rising within the range of -5%~0. The 100 digital currencies fell an average of 2.20%. Theta Token increased by 92.20%, followed by Cybermiles with an increase of 11.87%. SIRIN LABS was the worst performer, down 26.14%, followed by Verge, down 16.69%.

Market Forecast


As mentioned above, short-term trend of BTC can be regarded as rebound relay, but the specific trend needs to be judged based on real-time changes. The 4-hour market fluctuates within a narrow range, but MACD indicator continues to decline, resulting in a small level of divergence, but does not have an impact on the overall trend. BTC is likely to have a small decline in a short term, and the rebound demand is still in. Judged by short-term technique, the market after may continue to rise. 

The main net outflow is 88.36 million yuan over 24 hours, retail net outflow is 18.98 million yuan, generally short dominated.


ETHs market weakly follows the BTCs, which is trading at a triangular-downward daily level, at $117, and is currently on the 7-day EMA. The downward trend of three consecutive days diverges from the MACD indicator, and short-term repair demand increases, there may be a daily level rebound, but the trend with BTC has higher priority. 

The main net outflow is 61.74 million yuan over 24 hours, retail net outflow is 414 million yuan, a strong short dominated.


Overall, XRP underperformed BTC and ETH, and fell more than other currencies in the day's correction, supported by $0.377-0.37 in a short term. The position of $0.37 support strength is strong, and it is expected to be the bottom of this adjustment, later may rebound in this position with the market. 

The main net outflow is 12.87 million yuan over 24 hours, retail net outflow is 106 million yuan, a strong short dominated.


EOS continued the weak downward trend, although temporarily did not fall below the 27-day low of $2.87, but down 12% on yesterday and today, leading downward trend of the mainstream currencies. EOS, of course, is still not out of the decline of the trendline on 14th and 19th, the 4-hour markets downward trend is obvious, and is suppressed by MA5 above $2.98, which will continue to test the support of $2.91-2.87.

The main net outflow is 30 million yuan over 24 hours, retail net outflow is 256 million yuan, a strong short side dominated.

Industry Overview

As of 5pm, 11 out of 27 blockchain industry categories of 5 main classes went up, according to TokenInsight. Among them, "social networking and content platforms" category saw the best performance with an average increase of 24.97%, followed by "energy and mining applications" category with an average increase of 11.52%. The "storage technologies or protocols" category saw the worst average decline of 3.98%, followed by the "exchange protocol services" category with an average decline of 3.52%.